Bitcoin ETF details and price effects : BitcoinMarkets
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Cost basis $340, sell for short term capital loss? or wait, soon turns into long term capital.
Hey guys! Looking for opinions! Rode to the top at $1100 or so, sold and waited for the price of $340 to buy again in bulk. This was based on a historical volatility trade where I was seeking a ~73% decline in prices. There was a pattern % corrections after each rally before... 97%, 85%...... This is the lot of BTC I am concerned about. (I have other smaller lots). In May this will become a long term capital investment after it hits one year in age. This means that if I sold it for a loss after may, I wouldn't be able to deduct it against my other short term capital gains in other asset classes. Short term gain tax can only be offset by short term losses, and associated carry over losses, if I recall correctly. Long term capital gains can only be offset by long term capital losses, and long term associated carry over losses. I'm actually not sure about the carry over losses part, if that also uses the distinction of long term/short term. But this entire dilemma is based around that. Now, my forecast is based on information I know, that could increase the price, versus what will decrease the price. For the next two weeks, people may be riding off of the CNN expose' on bitcoin, getting their coinbase accounts set up with their tax refunds etc. The next two weeks also features the USMS auction, which means nothing in regards to the price. There is always the ambiguous and looming SecondMarket ETF coming to the stock market, and the Winklevii's. Aside from that, nothing really. I make much greater returns outside of bitcoin, and my position size is now too large to play around in altcoins. (Although Paycoin looked really liquid, my gambling appetite isn't available for that anymore). So, in theory I could hop out of bitcoin, and hop back in pretty quickly, ideally with capital gains. (It really bugs me that I can't sell liquid options on my bitcoin holdings, I would do this 90% of the time) So should I sell now, later? Before may? Why/why not I use bitcoin for various financing and acquiring other cryptocurrencies that have other useful features. I don't mind if bitcoin goes down, although I would like to use the sell (as a loss) to offset some tax, potentially.
I, and as i think it's generally assumed, thought that the ETFs will drive price growth. However, I rethought this today. COIN and secondmarket need btc, but haven't they been buying for the past year+? That means there won't be any sort of magical demand growth once it goes live - all the bitcoin buying has already occurred. Now the certificates are just transferred to the retail customers. I could see some marginal demand as more people are interested in the product, meaning that the ETF operators need to acquire more to meet the customer pool. Does this all sound correct? Unless demand via ETFs outstrips expected demand, forcing the ETFs to acquire drastically more coin, then where will all this demand come from? Edit: I can see an immediate bounce just because fundamentals have changed; i.e. the gates to a new market have opened. I can also see how long-term price increases due to demand, the market is open and demand increases. I'm just suggesting that a bubble isn't going to launch with the ETFs because the existing coins will satisfy demand of the new market in the short to mid term.
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