Download any of these for free at https://oppfiles.com/585933 DM me if you have any requests for anything not on the list. Please subscribe the sub to find all the eBook releases. Enjoy! [BOOK] 'The macabresque : human violation and hate in genocide, mass atrocity and enemy-making' Edward Weisband, Oxford University Press 2018(self) 1 [BOOK] Scotland After the Ice Age Environment, Archaeology and History 8000 BC - AD 1000(self) 1 [Book] Ethics of Captivity edited by Lori Gruen(self) 1 [Book] Aspects of American History By Simon Henderson(self) 1 [Book] The Soviet Colossus History and Aftermath By Michael G. Kort(self) 1 [BOOK] Challenges to Political Decision-making Dealing with Information Overload, Ignorance and Contested Knowledge(self) 5 [Article] The EU Competition Law Fining System: A Reassessment, Damien Geradin(self) 1 [Book] Russia and the USSR, 1855–1991 Autocracy and Dictatorship ByStephen J. 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Exploring the Boundaries of Environmental and State-Corporate Crime in Bolivia, Peru, and Mexico(self) 1 [Book] International Human Rights Law (3rd edn) Edited by Daniel Moeckli - Oxford University Press(self) 4 [Book] Participatory Heritage, Edited by Henriette Roued-Cunliffe , Andrea Copeland(self) 4 [BOOK] Political Representation in Southern Europe and Latin America Before and After the Great Recession and the Commodity Crisis - André Freire, Mélany Barragán, Xavier Coller, Marco Lisi, Emmanouil Tsatsanis(self) 4 [BOOK] Latin America and Policy Diffusion From Import to Export - Osmany Porto de Oliveira, Cecilia Osorio Gonnet, Sergio Montero, Cristiane Kerches da Silva Leite(self) 0 [Book] Sexual behaviour in Britain: The National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles (1994)(self) 1 [book] Studien zur Hirnpathologie und Psychologie - Pick, Arnold(self) 4 [Other] Special Issue, Blockchain innovation and public policy, Journal of Entrepreneurship and Public Policy: Volume 9 Issue 2(self) 4 [BOOK] baby jails: the fight to end the incarceration of refugee children in america/ jstor account??(self) 1 [Journal] Special Issue: Blockchain innovation and public policy, Journal of Entrepreneurship and Public Policy, Volume 9, Issue 2(self) 1 [Book] Blackstone's EU Treaties and Legislation 2019-2020 (20th ed)(self) 3 [article] Deep Graph Kernels(self) 5 [Book] Routledge Handbook of the South Asian Diaspora - By Joya Chatterji, David Washbrook(self) 4 [Book] Growth and distribution(self) 1 [BOOK] The Radical Left in Europe in the Age of Austerity - Babak Amini(self) 4 [Book] Political Myth by Christopher Flood (Routledge) (2002)(self) 2 [Article] Robotic Assisted Radical Cystectomy vs Open Radical Cystectomy: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis + Niranjan J Sathianathen et al(self) 1 [Book] Folk Art Potters of Japan Beyond an Anthropology of Aesthetics (Routledge) by Brian Moeran(self) 1 [book] Revolution: How the Bicycle Reinvented Modern Britain(self) 5 [BOOK] Radical Left Movements in Europe - Magnus Wennerhag, Christian Fröhlich, Grzegorz Piotrowski(self) 4 [BOOK] Party System Change, the European Crisis and the State of Democracy - Marco Lisi(self) 5 [BOOK] Routledge Handbook of Contemporary European Social Movements. Protest in Turbulent Times - Cristina Flesher Fominaya, Ramon A. Feenstra(self) 4 [Book] Attorney-Client Privilege in International Arbitration(self) 1 [Article] An Alternative Ontology of Food Beyond Metaphysics by Lisa Heldke. Published in Radical Philosophy Review, Vol 15, Issue 1, 2012(self) 1 [Book] Bello, Walden 2005 Dilemmas of Domination: The Unmaking of the American Empire. Zed Books, 2005.(self) 1 [Article] Owning the PastOwning the Past Reply to Stokes(self) 1 [Article] Owning the PastOwning the Past Reply to Stokes(self) 1 [Book] McQuire, Scott. Crossing the Digital Threshold. Brisbane: Australian Key Centre for Cultural and Media Policy, Faculty of Humanities, Griffith University, 1997.(self) 3 [Book] Request: Migration and the Refugee Dissensus in Europe: Borders, Security and Austerity by Nicos Trimikliniotis.(self) 9 [Article] Masculinity in videogames: the gendered gameplay of Silent Hill(self) 1 [BOOK] 'Truth games : lies, money, and psychoanalysis' by John Forrester, Harvard University Press, 2000(self) 1 [Book] Osterloh, Jörg, und Clemens Vollnhals. NS-Prozesse Und Deutsche Öffentlichkeit: Besatzungszeit, Frühe Bundesrepublik Und DDR.(self) 2
The Dow plunged 1190.95, or 4.42%, to 25766.64, the Nasdaq lost 414.30, or 4.61%, to 8566.48, and the S&P 500 dropped 137.63, or 4.42%, to 2978.76.
It was a frenetic day of trading action on /thewallstreet. The stock market extended its recent sell-off by more than 4% on Thursday in a volatile session, as the widening spread of the coronavirus heightened pessimism among investors. The S&P 500 dropped as much as 3.5% shortly after the open, then cut its losses to 0.6% by midday, but ultimately closed at session lows with a 4.4% decline. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (-4.4%), Nasdaq Composite (-4.6%), and Russell 2000 (-3.5%) experienced similar price action. Each of the major indices fell into correction territory, which is often defined as a decline of at least 10% from a recent high, and today's drop sent the S&P 500 well below its 200-day moving average (3046.58) amid heavy selling into the close. From a sector perspective, all 11 S&P 500 sectors fell between 3.3% (health care) and 5.6% (real estate). Other notable moves included WTI crude falling 3.0% to 47.24/bbl to extend its weekly decline to 12.1% and the CBOE Volatility Index surging 42.1% to 39.16 in a protection trade against further equity weakness. Regarding COVID-19, the CDC acknowledged the first coronavirus case of "unknown origin" in the U.S., which raised concerns about a community spread of the virus. California's governor fueled concerns by saying 28 people have tested positive and another 8,400 people are being monitored because of their travel. The impact to global supply chains or consumer spending remains uncertain, but Goldman Sachs warned there could be no U.S. earnings growth in 2020 if the virus becomes widespread. MSFT -7.1%, meanwhile, was the latest high-profile company to issue a quarterly revenue warning, specifically for its More Personal Computing segment. Current, and past, Fed officials offered their views on the matter. In an opinion piece for The Wall Street Journal, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh argued that the Fed and other central banks should cut rates due to the coronavirus, while Chicago Fed President Evans reiterated the Fed's stance that it's still premature to provide guidance without more data. Besides the coronavirus news, equity investors appeared to be taking cues from the Treasury market. For instance, the S&P 500's early morning low coincided with the high in the Treasury market. At session's end, the 2-yr yield declined five basis points to 1.10%, and the 10-yr yield declined basis points to 1.30%. Not all stocks closed lower, though. Face mask company (MMM) +0.8% and Bleach company (CLX) +0.4% managed to eke out small gains amid speculation that demand for some of their products will increase due to the coronavirus. Among the noteworthy gainers were VIR and NVAX, which surged 50% and 18%, respectively, as coronavirus fears mount. Both companies are working on coronavirus vaccines. Also higher were ETSY and SQ, which gained a respective 16% and 11% after reporting quarterly results. Among the notable losers was TSLA, which slid 8% after Bloomberg reported registrations of new Teslas in China plunged 46% last month as the coronavirus outbreak adds to a slump in the country's car market. SPCE fell 17% after Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas downgraded the shares to Equal Weight and Credit Suisse analyst Robert Spingarn also downgraded the stock to Neutral following with the shares up 185% year-to-date. In earnings news, BBY reported better than expected sales and earnings for the fourth quarter and raised its quarterly dividend by 10%. Last night, BKNG reported "strong" Q4 results, but also cited a significant impact from the coronavirus on its forward outlook, stating that its wider than typical guidance ranges are due to "the high level of uncertainty in forecasting the coronavirus and its associated impact on the company and the travel industry generally." In its own more optimistic coronavirus update,SBUX said it is "seeing the early signs of a recovery" in China. In a letter to employees posted on its corporate blog, Starbucks CEO Kevin Johnson reported that the coffee giant now has 85% of stores open across China as it continues to assess the ongoing impact of the disease outbreak. Elsewhere in Europe, Stoxx 600 closed 3.6% lower provisionally, officially entering correction territory as it was off more than 10% from its record high notched on Feb. 19 last year.
The U.S. Dollar Index slid 0.5% to 98.51, widening this week's loss to 0.8%.
EUUSD: +1.0% to 1.0986
GBP/USD: UNCH at 1.2892
USD/CNH: -0.2% to 7.0051
USD/JPY: -0.4% to 109.99
The Treasury market has been the epicenter of concerns about the global growth outlook, as well as the frayed psychology pertaining to the COVID-19 outbreak. The 10-yr note yield is down four basis points this morning to 1.27%, leaving it down 19 basis points on the week and 65 basis points on the year. Today, the fed funds futures market expects that a rate cut will happen as soon as the March 18 meeting, followed by another cut in June. Treasuries briefly turned negative in midday trade but returned toward their opening levels after California Governor Gavin Newsom said that 28 people in California have tested positive for the coronavirus while more than 8,000 other people are being monitored.
2-yr: -5 bps to 1.10%
3-yr: -3 bps to 1.09%
5-yr: -3 bps to 1.11%
10-yr: -1 bp to 1.30%
30-yr: -1 bp to 1.78%
Oil prices continued their steep decline on Thursday, with U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude falling more than 5% at the low to $45.88 per barrel — a price not seen since Jan. 2019 — as fears of the coronavirus outbreak, and what it could mean for crude demand, continue to batter prices.
WTI crude: -4.88% to $46.35/bbl
Gold: -0.4 at $1640.70/ozt
Copper: -0.52% to $2.55/lb
Bitcoin was fighting to keep support at a key level on Feb. 27 as markets worldwide continued to suffer from fears over coronavirus.
Bitcoin: $8,873.19 (24hr: +0.77%)
Ethereum: $231.34 (24hr: +1.52%)
Ripple: $0.24 (24hr: 3.09%)
FAAMG + some penny stocks -4.5% YTD
Spoos -7.8% YTD
Old man -9.7% YTD
Russy -9.8% YTD
BYND reports EBITDA: $9.5M (est $5.76M), Net Rev: $98.5M (est $79.8M).Sees 2020 Net Revenue: $490M To $510M (est $485.7M)
Thoughts on Corona
It is becoming abundantly clear that the spread of the coronavirus is not going to be stopped. What is not clear is the extent of the economic damage that is going to be done by its spread before the world gets comfortable with the notion that the coronavirus is debilitating, but not necessarily deadly for most sufferers. The latter is the accepted perspective when dealing with the flu, but because COVID-19 is so new and won't reportedly have a vaccine to guard against it for some time, there is some understandable fear about contracting the virus that is prompting some extreme measures to contain it. Those measures have been detrimental to the world economy in a number of respects, which include but are not limited to shutting down supply chains, restricting travel, and preventing people from going to work. At the same time, some considerable psychological damage is being done with the understanding that governments around the globe are scrambling to deal with COVID-19 in a way that hasn't been seen in a really long time. China locked down entire cities. Japan announced today that it will be closing elementary, middle, and high schools nationwide until late March. President Trump last night announced that Vice President Pence is being put in charge of the U.S. response to COVID-19. The stock market, therefore, has been getting punched by a left-right combination of growth concerns and frayed investor psychology. That combination has led to some rapid-fire selling for a market that was already stretched and counting on stronger earnings growth in 2020, which now seems unlikely to pull through as expected. The uncertainty surrounding the earnings outlook is a major headwind for the market at the moment. Summaryscrapedfromtheinterweb.Took2.30seconds.
Review and Prospect of Crypto Economy-Development and Evolution of Consensus Mechanism (1)
https://preview.redd.it/7skleasc80a51.png?width=553&format=png&auto=webp&s=fc18cee10bff7b65d5b02487885d936d23382fc8 Table 1 Classification of consensus system Source: Yuan Yong, Ni Xiaochun, Zeng Shuai, Wang Feiyue, "Development Status and Prospect of Blockchain Consensus Algorithm" Figure 4 Evolution of consensus algorithm Figure 4 Evolution of consensus algorithm Source: Network data Foreword The consensus mechanism is one of the important elements of the blockchain and the core rule of the normal operation of the distributed ledger. It is mainly used to solve the trust problem between people and determine who is responsible for generating new blocks and maintaining the effective unification of the system in the blockchain system. Thus, it has become an everlasting research hot topic in blockchain. This article starts with the concept and role of the consensus mechanism. First, it enables the reader to have a preliminary understanding of the consensus mechanism as a whole; then starting with the two armies and the Byzantine general problem, the evolution of the consensus mechanism is introduced in the order of the time when the consensus mechanism is proposed; Then, it briefly introduces the current mainstream consensus mechanism from three aspects of concept, working principle and representative project, and compares the advantages and disadvantages of the mainstream consensus mechanism; finally, it gives suggestions on how to choose a consensus mechanism for blockchain projects and pointed out the possibility of the future development of the consensus mechanism. Contents First, concept and function of the consensus mechanism 1.1 Concept: The core rules for the normal operation of distributed ledgers 1.2 Role: Solve the trust problem and decide the generation and maintenance of new blocks 1.2.1 Used to solve the trust problem between people 1.2.2 Used to decide who is responsible for generating new blocks and maintaining effective unity in the blockchain system 1.3 Mainstream model of consensus algorithm Second, the origin of the consensus mechanism 2.1 The two armies and the Byzantine generals 2.1.1 The two armies problem 2.1.2 The Byzantine generals problem 2.2 Development history of consensus mechanism 2.2.1 Classification of consensus mechanism 2.2.2 Development frontier of consensus mechanism Third, Common Consensus System Fourth, Selection of consensus mechanism and summary of current situation 4.1 How to choose a consensus mechanism that suits you 4.1.1 Determine whether the final result is important 4.1.2 Determine how fast the application process needs to be 4.1.2 Determining the degree to which the application requires for decentralization 4.1.3 Determine whether the system can be terminated 4.1.4 Select a suitable consensus algorithm after weighing the advantages and disadvantages 4.2 Future development of consensus mechanism Chapter 1 Concept and Function of Consensus Mechanism 1.1Concept: The core rules for the normal operation of distributed ledgers Since most cryptocurrencies use decentralized blockchain design, nodes are scattered and parallel everywhere, so a system must be designed to maintain the order and fairness of the system's operation, unify the version of the blockchain, and reward users maintaining the blockchain and punish malicious harmers. Such a system must rely on some way to prove that who has obtained the packaging rights (or accounting rights) of a blockchain and can obtain the reward for packaging this block; or who intends to harm , and will receive certain penalty. Such system is consensus mechanism. 1.2 Role: Solve the trust problem and decide the generation and maintenance of new blocks 1.2.1 Used to solve the trust problem between people The reason why the consensus mechanism can be at the core of the blockchain technology is that it has formulated a set of rules from the perspective of cryptographic technologies such as asymmetric encryption and time stamping. All participants must comply with this rules. And theese rules are transparent, and cannot be modified artificially. Therefore, without the endorsement of a third-party authority, it can also mobilize nodes across the network to jointly monitor, record all transactions, and publish them in the form of codes, effectively achieving valuable information transfer, solving or more precisely, greatly improving the trust problem between two unrelated strangers who do not trust each other. After all, trusting the objective technology is less risky than trusting a subjective individual. 1.2.2 Used to decide who is responsible for generating new blocks and maintaining effective unity in the blockchain system On the other hand, in the blockchain system, due to the high network latency of the peer-to-peer network, the sequence of transactions observed by each node is different. To solve this, the consensus mechanism can be used to reach consensus on transactions order within a short period of time to decide who is responsible for generating new blocks in the blockchain system, and to maintain the effective unity of the blockchain. 1.3 The mainstream model of consensus algorithm The blockchain system is built on the P2P network, and the set of all nodes can be recorded as PP, generally divided into ordinary nodes that produce data or transactions, and"miner" nodes (denoted as M) responsible for mining operations, like verifying, packaging, and updating the data generated by ordinary nodes or transactions. The functions of the two types of nodes may be overlapped; miner nodes usually participate in the consensus competition process in general, and will select certain representative nodes and replace them to participant in the consensus process and compete for accounting rights in specific algorithms. The collection of these representative nodes is recorded as DD; the accounting nodes selected through the consensus process are recorded as AA. The consensus process is repeated in accordance with the round, and each round of the consensus process generally reselects the accounting node for the round . The core of the consensus process is the "select leader" and "accounting" two parts. In the specific operation process, each round can be divided into four stages: Leader election, Block generation, Data validation and Chain updating namely accounting). As shown in Figure 1, the input of the consensus process is the transaction or data generated and verified by the data node, and the output is the encapsulated data block and updated blockchain. The four stages are executed repeatedly, and each execution round will generate a new block. Stage 1: Leader election The election is the core of the consensus process, that is, the process of selecting the accounting node AA from all the miner node sets MM: we can use the formula f(M)→f(M)→AA to represent the election process, where the function ff represents the specific implementation of the consensus algorithm. Generally speaking, |A|=1,|A|=1, that is, the only miner node is finally selected to keep accounts. Stage 2: Block generation The accounting node selected in the first stage packages the transactions or data generated by all nodes PP in the current time period into a block according to a specific strategy, and broadcasts the generated new block to all miner nodes MM or their representative nodes DD. These transactions or data are usually sorted according to various factors such as block capacity, transaction fees, transaction waiting time, etc., and then packaged into new blocks in sequence. The block generation strategy is a key factor in the performance of the blockchain system, and it also exposes the strategic behavior of miners such as greedy transactions packaging and selfish mining. Stage 3: Verification After receiving the broadcasted new block, the miner node MM or the representative node DD will verify the correctness and rationality of the transactions or data encapsulated in the block. If the new block is approved by most verification/representative nodes, the block will be updated to the blockchain as the next block. Stage 4: On-Chain The accounting node adds new blocks to the main chain to form a complete and longer chain from the genesis block to the latest block. If there are multiple fork chains on the main chain, the main chain needs to be based on the consensus algorithm judging criteria to choose one of the appropriate fork chain as the main chain. Chapter 2 The Origin of Consensus Mechanism 2.1 The two armies problems and the Byzantium generals problem 2.1.1 The two armies Figure 2 Schematic diagram of the two armed forces Selected from Yuan Yong, Ni Xiaochun, Zeng Shuai, Wang Feiyue, "Development Status and Prospect of Blockchain Consensus Algorithm", Journal of Automation, 2018, 44(11): 2011-2022 As shown in the figure, the 1st and 2nd units of the Blue Army are stationed on two sides of the slope, and cannot communicate remotely between each other. While the White Army is just stationed in the middle of the two Blue Army units. Suppose that the White Army is stronger than either of the two Blue Army units, but it is not as strong as the two Blue Army units combined. If the two units of the Blue Army want to jointly attack the White Army at the same time, they need to communicate with each other, but the White Army is stationed in the middle of them. It is impossible to confirm whether the messengers of two Blue Army units have sent the attack signal to each other, let alone the tampering of the messages. In this case, due to the inability to fully confirm with each other, ultimately no effective consensus can be reached between the two Blue Army units, rendering the "paradox of the two armies". 2.1.2 The Byzantine generals problem Figure 3 Diagram of the Byzantine generals' problem Due to the vast territory of the Byzantine roman empire at that time, in order to better achieve the purpose of defense, troops were scattered around the empire, and each army was far apart, and only messengers could deliver messages. During the war, all generals must reach an agreement, or decide whether to attack the enemy based on the majority principle. However, since it is completely dependent on people, if there is a situation where the general rebels or the messenger delivers the wrong message, how can it ensure that the loyal generals can reach agreement without being influenced by the rebels is a problem which was called the Byzantine problem. The two armies problems and the Byzantine generals problem are all elaborating the same problem: in the case of unreliable information exchange, it is very difficult to reach consensus and coordinate action. The Byzantine general problem is more like a generalization of the "paradox of the two armies". From the perspective of the computer network, the two armies problem and the Byzantine problem are common contents of computer network courses: the direct communication between two nodes on the network may fail, so the TCP protocol cannot completely guarantee the consistence between the two terminal networks. However, the consensus mechanism can use economic incentives and other methods to reduce this uncertainty to a level acceptable to most people. It is precisely because of the two armies problem and the Byzantine problem that the consensus mechanism has begun to show its value. 2.2 Development history of consensus mechanism 2.2.1 Classification of consensus mechanism Because different types of blockchain projects have different requirements for information recording and block generation, and as the consensus mechanism improves due to the development of blockchain technology, there are currently more than 30 consensus mechanisms. These consensus mechanisms can be divided into two categories according to their Byzantine fault tolerance performance: Byzantine fault tolerance system and non-Byzantine fault tolerance system. Table 1 Classification of consensus mechanism Source: Yuan Yong, Ni Xiaochun, Zeng Shuai, Wang Feiyue, "Development Status and Prospect of Blockchain Consensus Algorithm" 2.2.2 Development frontier of consensus mechanism -Development of consensus algorithm According to the proposed time of the consensus algorithm, we can see relatively clearly the development of the consensus algorithm. Source: Network data Figure 4 Development frontier of consensus algorithm Figure 5 Historical evolution of blockchain consensus algorithm Source: Yuan Yong, Ni Xiaochun, Zeng Shuai, Wang Feiyue, "Development Status and Prospect of Blockchain Consensus Algorithm" The consensus algorithm has laid the foundation for the blockchain consensus mechanism. Initially, the research of consensus algorithms was mainly used by computer scientists and computer professors to improve the spam problem or conduct academic discussions. For example, in 1993, American computer scientist and Harvard professor Cynthia Dwork first proposed the idea of proof of work in order to solve the spam problem; in 1997, the British cryptographer Adam Back also independently proposed to solve the spam problem by use of the mechanism of proof of work for hashing cash and published officially in 2002; in 1999, Markus Jakobsson officially proposed the concept of "proof of work", which laid the foundation for the subsequent design of Satoshi Nakamoto's Bitcoin consensus mechanism. Next lecture: Chapter 3 Detailed Explanation of Consensus Mechanism Technology CelesOS As the first DPOW financial blockchain operating system, CelesOS adopts consensus mechanism 3.0 to break through the "impossible triangle". It provides both high TPS and decentralization. Committed to creating a financial blockchain operating system that embraces regulation, providing services for financial institutions and the development of applications on the regulation chain, and developing a role and consensus eco-system regulation level agreement for regulation. The CelesOS team is committed to building a bridge between blockchain and regulatory agencies / finance industry. We believe that only blockchain technology that cooperates with regulators will have a bright future and strive to achieve this goal. 📷Website https://www.celesos.com/ 📷Telegram https://t.me/celeschain 📷Twitter https://twitter.com/CelesChain 📷Reddit https://www.reddit.com/useCelesOS 📷Medium https://medium.com/@celesos 📷Facebook https://www.facebook.com/CelesOS1 📷Youtube https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC1Xsd8wU957D-R8RQVZPfGA
Sharering (SHR) I believe this one is going to surprise so many. Already generating revenue and doing buybacks every week. Already over 10 000 registered users. Mainnet + app + masternodes and staking before EOY.
I got this stuff from Steve Aitchison, he wrote this review and posted it on Uptrennd. Figured I should put it on here as well since I truly believe this is an incredible moonshot. I'm personally holding SHR myself and am very convinced it will do extremely well. Give a read through it and you will immediatly see why. Enjoy guys. Introduction Imagine for a second the following scenario. You are a 2 car family. One car is used every day going back and forth to work, for shopping, all the little jaunts you and your husband like to go on. Your grown children are at university and come home for the weekends so the other car sits in the driveway all week and doesn’t get used during the week. What a waste of a perfectly good car. You think to yourself we could put that car to good use and actually help to pay for university fees, by renting it out during the week. However, then you think “well it’s only a little Ford Fiesta who’s going to want to rent that.” Well, it turns out a lot of people want to rent it and for a good price: £34 ($40) per day, a possible $800 per month. Peer to peer car sharing has grown massively over the last few years and people are making serious money by letting our vehicles on a daily basis, emulating the Airbnb model. In fact companies like Turo, Getaround and Drivy, which has just been acquired by Getaround for $300 Million, are bringing in serious investors like Toyota, Softbank Vision Fund, Menlo Ventures, and IAC to the tune of over $800 Million. A key difference between rental companies and peer to peer is that they have vastly improved technology with app interfaces that make locating assets and resources, reserving and using them, and making payment convenient and seamless. This, combined with location-specific analytics, allows by-the-minute access to assets and resources (e.g. cars or bicycles) and enables customers to pick up and drop these assets where and when convenient. Car sharing is just one example of an industry that is being disrupted. We have seen, experienced and read about the amazing growth of Airbnb which is now estimated to be valued at $38 Billion. Airbnb has been so successful that companies like booking.com are trying to get in on the act by adopting a similar model when it comes to booking accommodation. There is also the phenomenal rise of bicycle rentals which we see in cities all over the world, not quite the same as peer to peer sharing, but it’s another rental model that is ripe for being disrupted by the new sharing model. With this business model in mind what other areas could it be used in: Transport: Used for the rental of cars, trucks, scooters, trailers, and even heavy vehicles. Delivery Drivers: Facilitate booking and payment for delivery drivers. Agriculture: Garden sharing, seed swap, bee-hive relocation, etc. Finance: Peer to peer lending Food bank, social dining Travel Tours, shared tour groups Real Estate Airbnb, co-housing, co-living, Couchsurfing, shared office space, house swapping. Time: Labour, co-working, freelancing Assets Book swapping, clothes swapping, fractional ownership, freecycling, toy libraries. Transportation Car sharing, ride-sharing, car-pooling, bicycle sharing, delivery company, couriers And so much more! This newly emerging, but highly fragmented sharing industry, is currently worth over $100 billion. It is predicted to grow to at least $335 billion by 2025. As you can see from a few examples above the sharing economy has a lot of room to grow but what it doesn’t have, yet, is a company who can facilitate ALL of the above use cases in one place. That is until now! ShareRing is disrupting the disruptors by bringing everything together in one place and making it easy for you and me to share anything and everything and making it as easy as opening an app on your phone. Business Case The sharing market has exploded over the last several years. This is due, in part, to the digital age we live in, as we now have over 2.82 Billion people with smart phones around the world. It also due to how easy the business model of sharing lends itself to the digital world, and how with the simple installation of an app we can access a plethora of markets to rent almost anything from. Due to this rise of digital platforms and the proliferation of smartphones, revenues coming from sharing economy platforms are only expected to increase. It is estimated to grow to a $335 billion industry in 2025, compared to its $14 billion value in 2014. (PwC UK). The beauty of the sharing economy is that it is a win/win/win situation for the person who wants to rent something for a few days or weeks, the person who is renting out, and the company who facilitates the ease of the transactions between the renter and the person renting out. Typically the renter will save a lot of money whilst renting out someone else’s apartment, car, bicycle, clothes, dog sitting services etc and they can almost be assured of quality due to the social side of the business model with reviews from real people. The person who is renting out can make additional income and will want good reviews and therefore keep the standard of service higher. The company that is facilitating all of this can make a lot of money on transaction fees, as well as from advertising, and partnership deals, and obviously have an exit strategy for possible buyouts. When it comes to looking at the business model, ShareRing fits in to the Commission Based Platform as described in Ritter and Schanz study where they looked at the core difference in difference business models of the sharing economy: Singular Transaction Models, Subscription-Based Models, Commission-Based Platforms and Unlimited Platforms.) Commission Based Platforms are dominated by (at least) triadic relationships amongst providers, intermediaries and consumers with a utility-bound revenue stream. These business models enable their customers to switch between provider and consumer roles by creating and delivering the value proposition. Only a few employees work for the intermediary and the value creation and delivery is externalized. From a consumer perspective, consumers are empowered to collaborate with each other and to design the collaboration terms by negotiating the terms and conditions of the content, creation, distribution and consumption of the value proposition. Depending on the orientation of the value proposition, consumers purchase commodities (Tauschticket, ebay), access commodities in a defined timespan (booking.com, Airbnb) or buy services (uber, turo) from occasional and professional providers found via an intermediary. The intermediary mainly focuses on nurturing a community feeling and reducing exchange insecurity by incorporating rating systems, micro-assurances and standardizations of payment and delivery into the platform. The platform mainly takes commissions for successful matching and executing trade. (Journal of Cleaner Production Volume 213, 10 March 2019, Pages 320-331) The USP of the ShareRing Business Model The USP that ShareRing has is that it brings all of the different forms of sharing together in one app through partnerships and onboarding of users. No other company, to date, is bringing everything together in such a way. However there are other factors that make ShareRing unique, which we will look at. Token Economics SHR is a utility token and will be used to pay for transactions on the network, such as 'new booking', 'add asset', etc. SHR is used by providers to pay for their access to the ShareLedger blockchain, including the addition of assets, renting out of assets, adding attributes, adding smart contracts, and other features. SharePay (SHRP) is used by customers to pay for the rental of assets. Masternodes will also be a main feature of the SHR token. When a transaction fee is incurred, it will be distributed in a way that allows for masternode holders who provide a service to the platform to receive a reward from each transaction. Transaction fees are charged to sharing providers in SHR. The distribution of transaction fees will be as follows: 50% - will be distributed amongst the active masternode holders who host an active node on the blockchain at that point in time (these holders provide a service to the platform). The distribution will be based on a calculation of the Total Amount Staked and the total continuous uptime of the node. 50% - will be provided to ShareRing Ltd (view ShareRing owned masternodes) for various purposes that contribute to working capital and platform growth. Leased Proof of Stake Consensus ShareRing have chosen the Leased Proof-of-Stake protocol as the consensus algorithm for ShareLedger. This choice is based on the practicality and security benefits evident in the Waves platform. It is also much more cost effective than Proof-of-Work (POW), and will not suffer from the current issues Bitcoin and other POW cryptocurrencies are facing such as scalability and electricity consumption. As explained above master nodes will be a main feature but there is the other feature of lightweight nodes. A user with a lightweight node will be able to stake their tokens to a full node of their choosing and participate in reaching consensus. They will also be free to cancel their leasing at any time as there are no contracts or freezing periods. The more tokens that have been staked in a full node, the higher the probability the node will have in producing the next block. Since the reward is given based on the total number of tokens staked in the full node, there will always be a trade-off between the size of the full node and the percentage of the reward. As an average user of the platform, you will not need to have technical knowledge on how to set up a node nor will you have to download the entire blockchain in order to stake your tokens. Only a user who sets up a full node will be required to do this, making it simpler than ever for users to earn a reward for supporting the platform. The return expected for staking is expected to be around 6 - 8% although this has yet to be confirmed. Buybacks ShareRing are currently implementing a series of buybacks which started in the beginning of November: The buyback operation is done at a random time during the week. If there is enough liquidity, SHR tokens will be bought through a single market order at the time of buyback. In case there is not enough liquidity, a limit buy order at last sell order price will be placed on the market, and will remain open until it gets filled. The buyback program was implemented to test the API purchase process for when live transactions occur on ShareLedger The Buyback Program is expected to:
Reduce the supply of ShareTokens available in both public and private markets
Bring New capital and fund inflows into the Shareledger
Substantially magnify value creation for the ShareToken holders
The Token Flow ShareRing will bring in hundreds of merchants to list their rental products, either exclusively or as part of an aggregator system e.g. When you look at the likes of trivago.com they will list the best hotel prices from multiple merchants who are listed on their website. Essentially ShareRing will become part of the aggregator ecosystem and be listed on sites like trivago.com as well as have exclusive agreements with merchants who are listed directly on their app. ShareRing’s USP is that they have everything on one place as well as their OneID module with means buyers can get a hotel, rent a car, rent their ski equipment, book events all through the one app and using the OneID. With that in mind they are going to attract a lot of merchants. This is where it gets exciting so pay attention to this part. When a merchant is part of the ShareRing ecosystem and a buyer rents something from that merchant ShareRing will take a small % commission from that transaction. So say someone books a hotel for $100 for the night, ShareRing might take $0.50 as a commission. What ShareRing will then do is go to one of the exchanges that ShareRing (SHR) is listed on and buy SHR tokens directly using an API system using USDT. Now, the actual commission has not been disclosed yet however if we assume even a 0.25% commission that means for every $100 Million worth of bookings made through the app will net ShareRing $250,000 which means buy backs of $250,000 for the SHR token, which increases the liquidity of SHR on the exchanges. If you think $100 Million of bookings is a lot, booking.com customers book around 1.5 Million rooms per day, if we estimate an average of $50 per room that is $75 million of bookings PER DAY or $2 Billion worth of bookings per month. This revenue coupled with revenue from OneID and eVOA makes ShareRing profitable almost from day one of the app going live. OneID And eVOA Another exciting development from the ShareRing team is the collaboration between ShareRings Self Sovereign Identity protocol and third party providers to bring OneID and eVOA which will utilise OneID With the huge rise in E-commerce and with over 2.82 billion people who now own a smartphone we are entrusting our personal information to more and more centralised entities. These entities are frequently hacked and our information is leaked to outside parties. ShareRing aims to tackle this with their service OneID module. ShareRing’s OneID solution protects users' data by handling Know Your Customer (KYC) information through third parties and ShareRing’s Self Sovereign Identity Protocol. ShareRing does not hold any identifying information anywhere on its servers. It provides the ultimate security for the renter and also the provider, as the Protocol encrypts and stores your data in a secure manner within your device. Essentially, this means that it is near impossible for a hack or data leak to happen, simply because there is no centralized server of data for hackers to exploit. The OneID module is very easy to use. The end-user needs to complete their ID submission only once, with the entire submission process requiring less than two minutes to complete. Once this step has been completed, the customers KYC is destroyed by the 3rd party document verification system and the OneID module allows merchants to verify a customer’s identity via a hashed verification packet, stored on the users device and ShareLedger. This removes the need for merchants to store or see personal information; safeguarding both merchants and users from fraud. To create your ShareRing OneID, simply:
Take a picture of your government ID document
Take a selfie
Confirm and submit your details
This is something I am really excited about for ShareRing and they already have made partnerships for other companies to use this feature which is another income stream for ShareRing. eVOA E-Visa On Arrival allows applicants to apply online and receive a travel authorisation before departure – this eVOA can be shown at dedicated Thailand immigration counters on arrival at major Thailand airports, allowing travellers to pass through in minutes. OneID system is scheduled to become the lynchpin technology in Thailand’s electronic Visa On Arrival (eVOA) system; one of only two companies to partner with Thai authorities to provide this service. The new Visa system eliminates much of the hassle involved in entering the country: This is a strong validation of the OneID system - immigration controls are some of the most scrutinized processes in any branch of government, and if the OneID solution can operate to their standards then it is truly business-ready. As explained by our COO, Rohan Le Page: “We are providing our OneID product for Thailand e-VOA (Visa On Arrival) that allows 5 Million travellers from 20 countries including China and India to complete the visa process on their mobile through our app. This provides a streamlined immigration process that negates the need for an expensive and time-consuming process when you get off the plane. Additionally, fraud is mitigated with several extra layers of security in the back end including our blockchain (ShareLedger) consensus model that makes all data immutable and all but impossible to hack.” Profit Margins on OneID So how does ShareRing make money from OneID and eVOA? With each application for an eVOA using the OneID module ShareRing will make an undisclosed commission. The e-VOA is available to citizens of 21 different countries and is intended for those who will be holidaying in Thailand and not working in the country. This means that each eVOA will last for a period of around 15 days which effectively means that ShareRing will get commission multiple times from each person travelling to one of the 21 countries listed below: Andorra, Bhutan, Bulgaria, China, Ethiopia, Fiji, India, Kazakhstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Maldives, Malta, Mauritius, Papua New Guinea, Republic of Cyprus Romania, San Marino, Saudi Arabia, Taiwan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan The profits on this alone, according to projections, are worth millions of dollars per year to ShareRing, with a healthy growth of about 35% in raw profit over the next 5 years, ultimately netting the company about $1.5 million profit per quarter. The ShareLedger Blockchain Platform ShareRing will utilize the registered intellectual property from the existing KeazACCESS framework (KEAZ: A car sharing company founded by Tim Bos) as well as improving it the blockchain experience in their team. It will consist of fo the primary elements: SharePay (SHRP) – SharePay is the base currency that will allow users of the ShareRing platform to pay for the use of third party assets. ShareToken (SHR) ShareToken (SHR) is the digital utility token that drives sharing transactions to be written to the ShareRing ledger that is managed by the ShareRing platform. Account – This will be a standard account, which such an account being represented by a 24-byte address. The account will contain 4 general fields: SHRP – SharePay token balance SHR – ShareToken balance ASSETS – linked/owned by the account (see below for definition of an Asset) ATTRIBUTES – Any additional attributes that are associated with this account. These attributes may be updated or added by Sharing Economy providers that utilise the ledger such as ID checks by rental companies. These attributes may be ‘global’ (i.e. used by any sharing providers) or ‘local’ (i.e. used by a specific sharing provider). Assets – An asset represents a tangible real-world or digital asset that is being shared, such as a car, a house, industrial machinery, an e-book, and so on. Smart Contracts – Similar to a number of other blockchain platforms, such as Ethereum and NEO, the ShareLedger blockchain will feature highly customisable smart contracts. These Smart Contracts will allow for decentralised autonomous applications that can be attached to an asset and/or account. Every smart contract will be Turing complete, meaning it will have the ability to implement sophisticated logic to manage the sharing of the assets. The smart contracts will be tested and reviewed by ShareRing in a sandbox as well as audited by reputable third-party code auditors prior to implementation. Proof of Stake Consensus ShareRing have chosen the Leased Proof-of-Stake protocol as the consensus algorithm for ShareLedger. This choice is based on the practicality and security benefits evident in the Waves platform. It is also much more cost effective than Proof-of-Work (POW), and will not suffer from the current issues Bitcoin and other POW cryptocurrencies are facing such as scalability and electricity consumption. The ShareRing App At the heart of the ShareRing project lies the ShareRing app: A universal ‘ShareRing’ app is being developed that will allow anyone to easily see and use any sharing services around them. Each partner will have the option of developing a ‘mini’ app within the ShareRing app that will have functionalities specific to that partner. The app will use geolocation-based services to display the ShareRing services that are nearby Social Media Presence Coming from a social media background I feel this is an extremely important area to look into, especially in the crypto world. ShareRing has done an okay job in growing their social media presence however I feel it could be much better. Here is a look at some of the key stats for their online social media presence: Youtube: 191 Subscribers Instagram: 238 Followers Linkedin: 376 Followers Telegram: 6,525 members (very active) Twitter: 2,216 Followers (Fairly regular updates) Facebook: 1,965 Followers Whilst social media may not be a priority just now I feel there has to be a big presence with image-based platforms and video-based platforms. Youtube and Instagram should be made a priority here as it spans all generations: Other News on ShareRing There is a lot of stuff going on at the moment with ShareRing which is what makes it an exciting prospect. Rather than give information on each of them here are some highlights provided by the ShareRing team.: - ShareRing's revolutionary ID management based module OneID. - Worlds first Blockchain based eVOA in place with major Thai company targeting 5 to 10 million travellers from 20 countries. - 2.6 million International Hotels/ Accommodation coming on to the Platform. Lots more to come! - Partnership with HomeAway - 200,000 Activites, Tours and Events added to the ShareRing App - Multi Global Car Sharing Partnerships - 1 Partner Directly Integrating SHR's OneID consisting of 1.2 million Vehicles across 150 Countries - Luxury Car Brand Sharing Platform purely based on SHR - SHR payment system SHRP available in 10% Taxi Terminals in Australia - SHRP available in 10,000 EFTPOS Terminals Australia wide - White Labelling Services incorporating ShareRings revolutionary OneID - 20 Significant Unannounced Partnerships, more to come! - Major Partners include - - BYD (Largest Electric Car Maker in the World) - DJI (Largest Drone Maker in the World) - Keaz (300 locations around the world) - Yogoo EV Car Sharing - MOBI Alliance Member Overview of Positives and Negatives Negatives Social Media and marketing possibly needs to be ramped up in order to bring more awareness to the project. The roadmap and white paper has not been updated recently for 2019/2020 but this I believe is coming soon. Positives With a low market cap project like ShareRing the risk to reward ratio is very good for retail and institutional investors. Technical analysis of current prices, currently at 31 Satoshi, is also very good with resistance levels at 50, 77 and 114 Satoshi which would be nearing its all time high. Referral program will increase the numbers of users that are currently using the site. If ShareRing can capture even a small % of the overall sharing market then success looks assured. There are 20 new announcements coming up and with Tim Bos looking for more partnerships it seems likely that ShareRing will break ATH prices soon. Great long term hold, in my opinion. Realistic Expectations of ROI Short term (4 weeks - 12 weeks) Short term looks great for ShareRing both from a TA point of view and a fundamental point of view. With lots of news still to come out about ShareRing there is not going to be a shortage of fundamentals to drive the price up. From a TA point of view the next line of resistance stands at around the 50 Satoshi level which would complete a massive cup and handle formation from August 24th of this year. After that we are looking at resistances of 77 and 114 to reach near the all time highs which i expect ShareRing to reach going into 2020. Long term (6 Months - 2 Years) If ShareRing can onboard users and keep on making partnerships at the same rate there will be no stopping it. It’s all about onboarding the users and utilising the most powerful marketing tool ever - word of mouth! When a great app is realised with great and useful functionality then it tends to go viral and I am hoping this happens for ShareRing. With a market cap at the moment of just under $6 Million then I don’t think it’s crazy to talk about 1000% increases in the next 2 years and I really believe that is being extremely conservative, given where we think crypto is heading as a whole.
In the Shade of Afternoon | Monthly FI Portfolio Update – August 2019
It is idle, having planted an acorn in the morning, to expect that afternoon to sit in the shade of the oak. Antoine de Saint-Exupéry, Wind, Sand and Stars This is my thirty-third portfolio update. I complete this update monthly to check my progress against my goals. Portfolio goals My objectives are to reach a portfolio of:
$1 598 000 by 31 December 2020. This should produce a passive income of about $67 000 (Objective #1) - Achieved
$1 980 000 by 31 July 2023, to produce a passive income equivalent to $83 000 (Objective #2)
Both of these are based on an expected average real return of 4.19%, or a nominal return of 7.19%, and are expressed in 2018 dollars. Portfolio summary Vanguard Lifestrategy High Growth Fund – $750 246 Vanguard Lifestrategy Growth Fund – $43 194 Vanguard Lifestrategy Balanced Fund – $79 500 Vanguard Diversified Bonds Fund – $110 418 Vanguard Australian Shares ETF (VAS) – $102 977 Vanguard International Shares ETF (VGS) – $20 184 Betashares Australia 200 ETF (A200) – $258 984 Telstra shares (TLS) – $1 982 Insurance Australia Group shares (IAG) – $14 056 NIB Holdings shares (NHF) – $8 868 Gold ETF (GOLD.ASX) – $104 149 Secured physical gold – $16 759 Ratesetter* (P2P lending) – $19 968 Bitcoin – $158 330 Raiz* app (Aggressive portfolio) – $16 223 Spaceship Voyager* app (Index portfolio) – $2 104 BrickX (P2P rental real estate) – $4 395 Total value: $1 712 337 (-$2 653) Asset allocation Australian shares – 40.5% (4.5% under) Global shares – 22.2% Emerging markets shares – 2.4% International small companies – 3.1% Total international shares – 27.7% (2.3% under) Total shares – 68.3% (6.7% under) Total property securities – 0.3% (0.3% over) Australian bonds – 5.1% International bonds – 10.1% Total bonds – 15.1% (0.1% over) Gold – 7.1% Bitcoin – 9.2% Gold and alternatives – 16.3% (6.3% over) Presented visually, below is a high-level view of the current asset allocation of the portfolio. [Chart] Comments The portfolio experienced a small decline this month, with an overall decrease of $2 600. This movement comes after a strong period of expansion through the first half of the year in the value of the portfolio. [Chart] As with last month, the fall occurs despite some significant new investments being made, meaning the absolute size of the decline is somewhat obscured. Renewed concerns about global trade and a relative weakening in the outlook for future earnings played a significant role in the overall movement of the portfolio. [Chart] Once again movements this month within the portfolio have been relatively limited in terms of the size of the portfolio. Equity holdings have declined by around $28 000 when contributions are accounted for, whilst appreciation in the price of gold has offset just over a third of that loss. In fact, despite no recent purchases, the gold component of the portfolio is currently at the highest nominal value it has ever held. On the topic of gold, this 2013 paper (pdf) provides a comprehensive and skeptical empirical analysis of the range of claims made to support holding gold, including tracing the real gold value of average soldiers pay across 2000 years. This month has seen a continuing 'averaging in' of the capital from July distributions. These have been directed to purchases of Vanguard's Australian shares ETF (VAS). This is to bring the allocation closer to my original targets - with my Australian shares allocation currently further underweight than the international shares allocation. Psychologically, a weakening Australian dollar has also made purchasing unhedged international shares more problematic. Risk, volatility, markets and economies There has been significant market volatility this month, and discussion around the future of Australian and global growth in the midst of trade tensions between US and China. In such times, something to remember as this St Louis Federal Reserve piece points out, is that the economy and sharemarket are not the same thing. This means that bad (or good) news for one, does not necessarily imply anything about the other. Missing this has the potential to lead to overconfident investment actions predicated on assumptions of future national economic trends (which will themselves most likely be priced into equity markets well before any retail investor reading the news arrives). The volatility in equity markets has brought out many well-intentioned injunctions to remain calm and fixed on the objective of contributing capital with a long-term view in mind. At times, however, this wise advice can shade into a form of near complacency - for example, for people to invest confident in the knowledge that long-term returns are (almost) guaranteed. No doubt this is generally good advice, directed at easing particularly new investors' concerns about investing at the "wrong" time, and reducing the potential damage from selling into falling markets due to panic. Even as I continue to invest amidst volatility, it is important to reflect on Elroy Dimson's definition that 'risk means more things can happen than will happen', and to consider that the history of equity markets available to us provides only a basis for sound conclusions around what has happened, not what could happen. This is the definition of the risk assumed in markets by investors. None of this is to suggest that starting, saving and regular investing with a view to one's individual risk tolerances are not the most important steps in the path to FI. There is a need to pause, however, and acknowledge that at times common financial independence investment precepts bear a disconcerting passing resemblance to the declaration and mathematical proof offered by famous stock promoter Jacob J Raskob in the well-known Ladies Home Journal (pdf) article exactly 90 years ago. This declaration was that with a steady investment in equities, based on the past patterns of returns, 'everybody ought to be rich'. Nearly 90 years happened to be just before the Great Depression devastated equity markets and employment prospects alike, and US equity investors were behind in nominal terms for around 25 years. Interestingly, however, this New York Times article argues that deflation, higher dividend yields and impacts from changes in the Dow index composition could theoretically have shortened the real losses of any investor to just 4.5 years, provided they possessed the resources and fortitude to hold on to average stocks. Progress Progress against the objectives, and the additional measures I have reached is set out below. Measure Portfolio All Assets Objective #1 – $1 598 000 (or $67 000 pa) 107.1% 145.4% Objective #2 – $1 980 000 (or $83 000 pa) 86.5% 117.4% Credit card purchases - $73 000 pa 98.3% 133.4% Total expenses - $89 000 pa 80.7% 109.4% Summary Progress against my goals and benchmarks has been static this month, with the exception of the 'total expenditure' benchmark. My detailed review of expenditure last month identified that I could lower this to recognise some double-counting of fixed expenses, and this has meant a leap forward in progress in that aim of 5.8 per cent. This moves the clock forward appreciably for achieving that benchmark. As a general rule, it is always later than we think. For example, on a recent lunch time walk it occurred to me that if my progress to my current FI target of $1.98 million is considered in terms of the length of an ordinary working day, it is currently approximately 3.50pm in the afternoon. Quite late, and just over an hour until heading home. This perspective, of being further towards the tail end than expected, is explored fully and powerfully in the blog Wait but Why here. It helps frame the remaining journey. Viewed in this way, wishing time away seems less useful and fitting than seeking to fill the remaining time with as much meaning, learning, knowledge transmission and patience as feasible. Yet it also explains why in a FI context at this stage sharp changes in investing approach, or commencing new 'side hustles' have limited appeal. Despite it being late afternoon from this one perspective, there are a couple of other considerations or viewpoints. One is the potentially deceptive role of compounding later in the journey, which means that - at least in a stylised world of 'smooth returns' - the end goal is actually likely closer than any purely linear measure would suggest. The other counterpoint to this is that while in my case the absolute journey to FI has involved serious investments over around 18 years, this is not the whole story. Viewed in terms of the average 'age' of dollars actually contributed or invested, the journey of the average dollar in the portfolio has been shorter. In fact, in terms of dollars contributed, around 50 per cent have been contributed since January 2016. So, in some ways, it is more akin to mid-morning for the portfolio as a whole, meaning perhaps that I should not reasonably expect to shade myself under the oak tree just yet. Finally, this month also saw Pat the Shuffler emerge from a short hiatus and provide a honest and well-argued insight into his rethink on investment options between LICs and ETFs. I also enjoyed reading the start of another Australian FI voice at Fire for One. The past few months has also had many interesting podcasts related to FI - from The Escape Artists' Chris Reining on Equity Mates, to a really fascinating practical ChooseFI episode on David Sawyer's on the UK Path to FI. On the slightly more technical and future focused side of finance, the outgoing address of the Bank of England's Governor to the Jackson Hole central bankers gathering provides much food for thought on current and longer term monetary and currency issues, particularly as global bond rates continue to cross the 'zero-bound' into uncharted territory. The post and full charts can be seen here.
Edit: Links here suck. I put quotes around them so you can spot them out. I did a lot of research for this post. Edit #2: Put square brackets around links. Now they should be clearly visible. TLDR: The ills Vitalik talks about are primarily about psychology. New scalable solutions can fix it partially, but we have to deal with people first. Before I dig deep into this post, I want to let you know what it's about. Yes, you'll see some emotional content. You'll see ideological ideas. However, this post ain't about ideologies. It's about something I deem as a real problem. Its about the corrupt mindsets that we have as community since the prices spiked early 2017. To advance forward, I want to analyze them, distill the problem into the most basic form possible, then point people into a direction I deem would be good for the cryptocurrency community. The format will go like this:
My history with Crypto/Blockchain. Why I'm here in the first place.
My analysis of the problem Vitalik talked about
My perceived solution to the problem.
The steps I've already taken towards the problem
Why I'm Here
Time travel back into pre-2017 and you'll see that the cryptocurrency/blockchain community was filled with hopeful young nerds that dreamed of making the world into a better place; A much more open, peaceful and freer place. I was going through a hard time with my life 2015-16 -- my twin died, I was on the verge of going homeless with nobody else to rely on, had to go unbanked in America, almost entirely dropped out of college and my first contracting business failed. I couldn't get my life right at all, and I didn't see any hope. The future was bleak to me. However, I found people here in the blockchain community actually trying their hardest to do things that would solve the world's problems, [even if that was mainly reporting the news for people and addressing people live in chat to create a community]. That drew me in well before the price of cryptocurrencies spiked; almost in a manic like way -- I read about it constantly, practiced solidity, talked to everyone I could that would have the capacity to understand cryptocurrencies and more. Even now, when I attend conferences, I meet good-hearted, sleep deprived developers, marketers, business owners and specialist that aim to solve the world's greatest problems in the best ways they can. Many are in small corners of the world helping each other out. Inside of this community I found hope and meaning. My depression lifted, my anxiety went away, my life got back on track, and that hope propels me though the field years since I joined this movement. I'm now more confident than ever knowing that collectively this industry will possibly be the epicenter of change for not only money, but for everything. We'll [eliminate poverty], [solve global warming], [prevent hyper-inflation like we've seen with Venezuela], [improve supply chains] around the world, improve healthcare, and solve the [social ills of the world like corruption]. That's just the tip of the iceberg. I believe intensely in the vision set for crypto. The community is filled with brilliant people that will make a difference. That excites me. I'm for freedom, boosting happiness of individuals, increasing health, making life more fun and less stressful for the common person, open discussions to progress everyone forward, and a more livable planet. I'm thinking of all people and I'm not against any group. However, I'm not for FUD, greed while abusing others, bigotry, trolling, hatred, racism, evil acts and stealing. Those are against my values. I think that's against the values of many of the cryptocurrency community's foundational members.
A problem we can't ignore
In 2017, as the prices exploded and the returns grew in for the average person, I noticed the community was starting to get tainted. People were no longer focusing on technology, freedom and community. No longer focusing on creating better lives for people in their communities around the world. We were missing the altruism I originally felt in the community. [If I were in Vitalik shoes, where I'd invest 80-100 hours a week into a vision, I'd feel extreme frustration too]. People are instead focusing on [needless politics], searching for the next big price pump, the next big score. Instead of people figuring out about how to use blockchain and crypto for making people's lives better, I've heard people say HODL and scam more than I ever have in the history of the community. This saddens me and frustrates me at the same time. On one end I see great potential and beauty in the community, and at the same time I see the beast within us come out that hasn't been even thought about deeply enough to be accurately tamed. Trolls, profiteers running away with ICO money, market manipulators and scam artist ruining the reputation and progress of the community. While I could complain about what I see, I decided to instead dissect it in this post. I wanted to know what's causing this on a larger scale. See, by training I'm a psychologist, social scientist and computer scientist. I've been transitioning over to economics and data science because I feel it's a solid cornerstone of the industry. My perspective will be coming from those first. Allow me to explain. If our community is going to "grow up and actually solve problems", the corruption of minds because of money needs to be fully explored first. Only by understanding the problem thoroughly can we solve it. Explicitly stating the problem: Its the extreme predatory, egotistical, harsh behavior we as a community have adopted.
The Psychology And Behavioral Science Of Finance
Let's start with the biggest premise. Money is an idea. It exist because people communicate, produce, share, trade, have scarcity for goods and have needs. Money is an ideological binding agent for people.
It helps us exchange two irrelevant things with a medium
Helps us do more things in knowing the value we hold will help us improve productivity in the future
Helps us determine value in an abstract way
Helps us navigate the world.
Money is about as social and psychological as anything in the world can get outside of direct human interactions. Coincidentally, this psychological/social aspect isn't talked about very much inside of the cryptocurrency landscape. However, it's the foundation of everything we have here today. If we can't talk about how money is connected to the mind, we can't solve the maturity problem Vitalik was talking about. My intent is to explore that deeply so a firm direction can be at least set.
Money and the Mind
Our mind is complex. Beyond the usual processing of information people have (our 11 senses), we people have 2 primary centers for decision making and control. Limbic System The first one is the limbic system. It has gone by the nickname of "the lizard brain" in recent history. It's responsible for storing memories, handling stress responses, attention and emotional processing. In a sense, it controls all of intuition and fast heuristic choices you make. https://preview.redd.it/xvpw95ate8d11.png?width=551&format=png&auto=webp&s=eeed7e25448614af346091f6ededac41be9df5b5 Prefrontal Cortex The second system is known as the prefrontal cortex. It controls higher order functions such as planning, reasoning, serial processing and how we think about emotions. https://preview.redd.it/if5p4n90f8d11.png?width=512&format=png&auto=webp&s=92ef641c4f583d38239cdf380d443b2b7557767e These two centers are not mutually exclusive. You brain has circuits to make decisions about everything. The two parts talk to each other to do so. Any dysfunction in behavior is usually due to a lack of communication between these two decision centers, rather than a lack of communication between the centers of your brain. This is heavily seen in mental disorders. According to the book [Upward Spiral ], a book that looks at mental disorders from a neuroscientific view and explains how to reverse the ill effects of them, here's now some disorders can play out inside of our heads:
Depression -- A poor link between the Anterior Cingular Cortex and PFC. It means you will notice more negative and therefore act on negative impulses and thoughts.
Dissociation -- A poor link between the Anterior Cingular Cortex and Anterior Insular makes it so your attention can't be accurately directed towards yourself. There will likely be a poor understanding of pain and out of body experiences. It can be reversed with meditation and yoga.
How Crypto Fits
This should hopefully be the first question we have. It's easy to only pay attention to the ill behaviors of the more recent cryptocurrency industry and say "shame on you!". But what if people had a hard time actually controlling themselves? Inside of the book Upward Spiral, Alex Korb, the neuroscientist that wrote it explored that people with depression and anxiety had a hard time not being depressed and anxious by choice. Because the depressed person's circuitry is skewed, they act on it subconsciously in a forever perpetuating loop. In fact, the only way to reverse depression is to reverse the circuitry that holds it together. Part of what makes anti-depressants more effective is that the serotonin improves sleep and makes a person's brain more susceptible to positive changes. That would be doing things like doing gratitude journals everyday to make your anterior cingular cortices notice more positive events, being around people who love you to boost your serotonin and cut down stress hormones, or getting a little exercise everyday to send oxygen to your brain. So that leads us back to the original question. What if people didn't have a fully conscious control over how they acted about money and crypto? I did some research between many different articles and found that this was absolutely the case. People don't have much control. They tend to be on extremes of some end all the time. How Does Finance Play With The Brain? Of the many ways, there's one key way it does. Money plays with people through the the hypothalamus stress response. It charges people into fight or flight mode, and can literally destabilize the homeostatic systems. This can do all sorts of things. It can make the anterior cingulate weaker in strength (known to help us control emotions and learn), and therefore reduce the power of our prefrontal cortex. When people are stressed about finance, or even excited about it, it will put people into extreme states.[Meaning the lizard brain takes the show].That can make people easily make haphazard decisions. Of course, there's other things that happen with the introduction of more money, but that IS the most intense thing to take note of. If we want to solve the problem of relinquishing poor community, like Vitalik continuously makes comments about, we need to look at the problem in this way. If we don't see it this way, we're screwed. The problem wont be solved, companies like Microsoft will continuously kill off their implementations due to price fluctuations, the cryptocurrency community wont pass go and wont make a huge impact. Instead we'll blame, shout at each other, and create another Wall Street 2.0. In fact, we'll become worse than them. We will have more leverage over resources than any other group in history and the corruption will be strong. Money affects decisions, period.
Solving the Cultural problem
I'm nervous. As I type this response, I know that by revealing my idea to the public I could be condemned by the community for "shilling", and even worse, somebody else can pick it up and run with it. That is the most nerve wreaking thing I could ever consider. Months of 80 hour weeks and extreme sacrifices to bring out a vision because I didn't see much of a choice. If we don't remove what limits us soon as a community we will get engulfed by outsiders that don't want to create virtuous society. My solution: Algorithmic Trading Now, before you tell me that the market is entirely unpredictable, I'd like to be one to say that the notion is false. We see everywhere that people using AI and more complex forms of math to be able to make reasonable gains in the financial world. Companies like Bridgewater predicted the financial crash of 2008 with reasonable accuracy, and other people like [mathematicians are able to do the same]. Realistically, the market has some degree of predictability. However, much of the access to that is limited. Even beyond that, the financial industry is one of the only social fields that is highly transparent to many actors, through the news and price information, and reflects ideas and beliefs through the markets. If we can better analyze markets, we could discover all sorts of social phenomenon that previously made no sense. With algorithmic trading we're heavily incentivized to learn, as that will produce a direct outcome of earning money. We could better solve the social ills of the world quickly and efficiently over time. On top of that, we will be able to stabilize the market and protect against bad agents if algorithmic trading becomes coordinated and effective enough throughout the industry. Again, How Does it Fit With Cryptocurrency? Bitconnect could answer how automated trading fits. Before I continue, let me be clear. People lost their money through that scam. It was awful. I know some people that had a lot of money taken from them. Many of them are now fearful of cryptocurrency. However, I don't think Bitconnect was 100% wrong with their idea. Yes they were a ponzi scheme, yet realistically many of the people I met that fell for it felt as though the crypto markets were already complex. They were losing money while HODLing, making rash decisions and trading. Bitcoin and the entire industry carries too much of a cognitive burden for a person to keep track of beyond their normal everyday life. News, prices, scams, hacks and technical information. That's a lot to keep track of if you have 3-4 part-time jobs as a single mom or dad while raising 2 kids. That's a lot to keep track of if you're old and don't have the technical capacity to read into the crypto markets all day everyday. Therefore, even while people were making less money from investing into Bitconnect, on paper it required less thinking and they were still getting benefits that they cared about. They could share with friends because they thought that there money would not shrink in value heavily due to a random market crash. As a consumer, it isn't wrong to believe that you can be apart of something big without having to work an extra 5 hours everyday reading blogs and watching youtube videos just to keep up with the happenings of the industry. It doesn't require us to be judging people for falling into a ponzi scheme. It requires a bit of caring and empathy to see people's main intentions. They want a better life compared to the one that has been crushing them with student debt and poor job prospects. People want to have a better life without being as stressed beyond belief like they currently are. And for the everyday trader, giving them the incentive they seek, while giving them the capacity to do some research for themselves is important. Choice matters a lot for some people.
Steps I've taken towards this:
Here comes the shill part you've been waiting for. Over the last year I've been building an application that would help us solve the problems we face today as a community. It I'll reduce the stress response of people worrying more about money, with technology like it getting standardized throughout the entire industry, it'll make things a lot more stable. It's an automated AI-based trading platform that aims to make reduce the cognitive load and worry about holding your funds in crypto. The aim of it is to dynamically trade for people while also letting them have 100% control over their funds. For now, that's by using exchange API keys. Though in the future, that can be through decentralized exchanges, meaning no middle man. My product's name: It's [Funguana.com]. [Internally meaning the interconnection of all Dhrama in the Huayan Buddhist religion]. I've already received controversial reviews, and feel crazy for putting it back out there. However, I'm now confident I can follow through, and maybe by explaining my reasoning behind why I built it the community will respond differently this time. To make it more trust-able, 4 months after public release, if my resources allow me to, I plan to open source the infrastructure code so people can implement their own platform within a matter of weeks, then systemically open many of the algorithms so they can appropriate powerful algorithms together over time (many not based on AI). I have to be strategic though. If I open it too soon, too many bad actors can enter the space and cause havoc early, without much chance to keep them in check. Edit: I made changes to the page to make the links more obvious. Now they're in bold and italic Edit 2: Adding quotes to make links more obvious again.
The Dow fell 351.98, or 1.49%, to 23,323.66, the Nasdaq lost 147.08, or 2.17%, to 6,636.83 , and the S&P 500 declined 39.20, or 1.54%, to 2,506.96. The S&P 500 dropped 1.5% on Wednesday in what was a tale of two trading sessions. The first part of the day was governed by a sense of hope that the Federal Reserve would provide the stock market with a dovish-minded perspective on the interest rate outlook. The second part of the day, which began at 2:00 p.m. ET (the time of the FOMC announcement) was governed by a sense of disappointment that the FOMC, and Fed Chair Powell, didn't deliver on the market's wishes. The S&P 500, up as much as 1.5% at its high for the day, sold off in the wake of the FOMC announcement, setting a new low for the year (2488.96) before bouncing slightly in closing action to end the day at 2506.96. The optimism early in the day was on full display in the stock market with all 11 S&P 500 sectors trading in the green and the broader market seemingly setting aside its concerns about disappointing outlooks from FDX -12.2% and MU -7.9%, both of which attributed earnings warnings to weaker-than-expected demand. The battered financial (-1.3%) and energy (-1.3%) sectors assumed a leadership position in the early going, yet they rolled over with the rest of the market following the Fed's interest-rate decision and Fed Chair Powell's press conference. In terms of the Fed decision, the target range for the fed funds rate was increased by 25 basis points to 2.25% to 2.50%, as most expected it would be, and the so-called dot-plot was revised to show a median projection for two rate hikes in 2019, versus three previously. That wasn't altogether surprising either; nonetheless, it still appeared hawkish relative to the zero rate hikes currently expected by the fed funds futures market. Selling interest picked up noticeably right after the FOMC directive was released and then it kicked into a higher gear during Fed Chair Powell's press conference. Some of Mr. Powell's more nettlesome talking points for the market were that (1) policy does not need to be accommodative now and that he doesn't believe the current policy is restrictive, and (2) he does not see the Fed altering its approach to balance sheet normalization and sees the preferred policy method being use of the fed funds rate. Every sector was driven lower after the Fed decision and they all ended the day in negative territory with losses ranging from 0.2% (utilities) to 2.2% (consumer discretionary). In other news, Washington D.C. Attorney General Karl Racine is suing FB for "failing to protect its users' data, enabling abuses like one that exposed nearly half of all District residents' data to manipulation for political purposes during the 2016 election.". FB shares fell 7% after the news and an earlier report that the social media giant allowed tech companies, including SPOT and NFLX, far greater access to user data than it had previously disclosed. Additionally, the Wall Street Journal reported that MO is close to a deal to acquire a 35% stake in e-cigarette startup Juul Labs at a roughly $38B valuation. Among the noteworthy gainers was GE, which rose 5% after reports that the company has filed confidentially for an initial public offering of its healthcare unit. Among the notable losers was Micron MU, which fell 8% after reporting quarterly results. Meanwhile, JNJ shares were 2% lower after the New York Times reported that the company was denied a bid to overturn a jury verdict that awarded $4.69B to 22 women who blamed their ovarian cancer on asbestos in the company's baby powder and talc products. Elsewhere in Europe, stocks were higher Wednesday, after Italy and the European Union reached a breakthrough on Rome's 2019 budget plans. The widely anticipated trading debut of SoftBank Corp, the mobile unit of Japanese conglomerate SoftBank Group, ended in disappointment. The company's shares closed 14.5 percent lower than its initial public offering price of 1,500 yen ($13.36). It was the most heavily-traded stock on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.
The dollar came off its lows but remained weaker overall on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve's guidance on its tightening cycle was less dovish than expected, even though it forecast fewer interest rate hikes than it had in September.
EUUSD: +0.2% to 1.1378
GBP/USD: -0.1% to 1.2625
USD/CNH: +0.3% to 6.9011
USD/JPY: -0.1% to 112.40
The sell-off in the stock market prompted a flight to safety in U.S. Treasuries, pushing yields lower. The yield curve also flattened with the Fed-sensitive 2-yr yield losing two basis points to 2.64%, and the benchmark 10-yr yield losing five basis points to 2.78%.
2-yr: -2 bps to 2.64%
3-yr: -3 bps to 2.62%
5-yr: -3 bps to 2.63%
10-yr: -5 bps to 2.78%
30-yr: -6 bps to 3.02%
Oil prices rose on Wednesday, recovering somewhat from a sharp sell-off during the previous session, after U.S. data showed strong demand for refined products. Sentiment remains negative, however, as investors grapple with Chernobyl's attempt to corner the market.
WTI crude: +3.7% to $48.28/bbl
Gold: +0.2% to $1256.30/ozt
Copper: +1.9% to $2.71/lb
Cryptocurrencies have experienced a sudden and unexpected price surge, following months of market decline.
Bitcoin: $3,769.68 (24hr: +5.58%)
Ripple: $0.35 (24hr: +7.02%)
Ethereum: $103.62 (24hr: +8.84%)
Nasdaq -3.9% YTD
Dow -5.7% YTD
S&P 500 -6.3% YTD
Russell 2000 -12.3% YTD
Thoughts on FOMC
On the surface, the decision was in-line with expectations, as the FOMC increased the fed funds target rate range by 25 basis points to 2.25%-2.50%. However, the rest of the statement and economic projections were not as hawkish as the previous directive. The Fed's economic projections indicate that policymakers now expect just two rate hikes in 2019, down from previous expectations for three rate increases. The 2018 inflation forecast was lowered to 1.9% from 2.1% while the outlook for inflation in 2019 was lowered to 1.9% from 2.0%. The FOMC narrowed its GDP growth forecast for 2019 to 2.3%-2.5% from 2.4%-2.7% estimated in September. The FOMC's median estimate of the neutral fed funds rate was reduced to 2.8% from 3.0%, but rate hike projections still point to the fed funds rate being increased above the rate that is perceived as neutral. Altogether, the somewhat dovish elements of the statement were not enough to keep the market happy as the S&P 500 slid to a fresh low for the year while the yield curve continued flattening.
TLRY enters $100 million joint venture with BUD to research non-alcoholic THC and CBD beverages in Canada
List of Scott's most influential twitter followers
It seems like Scott/SSC has gotten much more mainstream recognition over the past year, so I was curious to know who the most influential SSC readers are now. Using twitter follower data for this isn't perfect (follower count is not a perfect proxy for influence, not all SSC readers follow the twitter account, etc.), but it's the best I could think of and I figured it would be a fun exercise regardless. As an aside, a few interesting stats I learned about Scott's twitter followers (scraped on 12/30/17):
Of the top 100 most-followed followers, the gender breakdown (by my count) is 82 men vs 8 women (along with 10 organization or anonymous accounts). Among the top 50, it's 43 men and 1 woman (Liv Boeree)
385 followers (2% of the total) have bios including either "bitcoin", "ethereum", "crypto" or "blockchain"
There are 67 followers whose bios include either "@Google", "@ Google", "at Google", or "Googler"
Note: When constructing the top 100 below, I excluded accounts that had extremely large Following counts, since I wanted the list to just consist of (likely) actual SSC readers. My exact rule was to exclude any account that follows >20K, include any that follows <10K, and include accounts in the 10K-20K range iff their following/follower ratio was less than 10% (this last condition was mostly just because I wanted to keep @pmarca on the list). Anyway, below is the top 100. I also constructed lists for Eliezer, Robin Hanson, and gwern, and I can post those in the comments if anyone's interested.
Editor-in-Chief, @FiveThirtyEight. Author, The Signal and the Noise (http://amzn.to/QdyFYV). Sports/politics/food geek.
Suspicious trades on a Bitcoin currency exchange are linked to rises in the exchange rate. • A single actor likely drove the USD/BTC exchange rate from $150 to $1000 in 2 months. • Trading volume on all exchanges increased greatly on days with suspicious activity. • Unregulated cryptocurrency markets remain vulnerable to manipulation today. Abstract. To its proponents, the cryptocurrency ... Bitcoin: Economics, Technology, and Governance by Rainer Böhme, Nicolas Christin, Benjamin Edelman and Tyler Moore. Published in volume 29, issue 2, pages 213-38 of Journal of Economic Perspectives, Spring 2015, Abstract: Bitcoin is an online communication protocol that facilitates the use of a vir... Journal of Economie Perspectives—Volume 29, Number 2—Spring 2015—Pages 213-238 Bitcoin: Economics, Technology, and Governancet Rainer Böhme, Nicolas Christin, Benjamin Edelman, and Tyler Moore Bitcoin is an online communication protocol that facilitates the use of a virtual currency, including electronic payments. Since its inception in 2009 by an anonymous group of developers (Nakamoto ... Journal of Economic Perspectives—Volume 29, Number 2—Spring 2015—Pages 213–238 B itcoin is an online communication protocol that facilitates the use of a virtual currency, including electronic payments. Since its inception in 2009 by an anonymous group of developers (Nakamoto 2008), Bitcoin has served approximately 62.5 million transactions between 109 million accounts. As of March ... Evans, D. S. (2014), ‘Economic Aspects of Bitcoin and Other Decentralized Public-Ledger Currency Platforms’, University of Chicago Coase-Sandor Institute for Law & Economics Research Paper, 0(685). 10.2139/ssrn.2424516
Bitcoin Price: Now Is The Time To Buy Bitcoin Published March 24, 2017 I want take a second to tell everyone why it’s time to buy bitcoin and it’s BEEN time to buy bitcoin for a long time. By ... When we compare Bitcoin to the stock market, we can see that when the stock market is running up, Bitcoin goes for the ride as well. And with Bitcoin, comes the rest of the crypto market. Donald Amstad from Aberdeen Standard Investments delivers a sobering assessment on the state of developed market economies. Livewire Markets is an Australian... Apr.15 -- Ray Dalio, the billionaire founder of investment management firm Bridgewater Associates, talks with Bloomberg's Erik Schatzker on the "Bloomberg In... Watch this video! 133k Bitcoins have been bought over the past 4 weeks! The mainstream media does not report this. But we have proof! Follow us on Twitter at...